The Math of Campaigning
Here’s what you’ll need to do to calculate to help you figure out what you need to win
How many votes do you need to win?
How many doors are you planning on knocking on?
How many people do you want to speak with about your campaign?
How many volunteers do you need to help you achieve those goals?
What’s your campaign budget?
You see, campaigns are a number game. And figuring out your numbers before you get started will differentiate you from your opponents.
One of the first things you need to do is figure out your campaign numbers. That’s what’s going to be what helps you figure out your goals.
So sit down and get ready to do some research.
Win Number
First thing’s first — what’s your win number?
Your win number is the number of votes you need to win your election.
And it is imperative that you figure this out because this number will define your whole campaign. You’ll base everything on this number — fundraising objectives, volunteers needed, people canvassed …
Everything.
To do this, you’re going to look at past elections. You can find this information usually through a Google search of “COMMUNITY NAME + votes + ELECTION YEAR.” Your municipality may even have the information on their website. You’re going to write down how many votes the winner received, how many ballots were cast, and then calculate what their voter share was. It’s best to do this for the last two or three elections, so that you have a couple of different scenarios to compare. Then you’ll average it out for a couple of elections, and ta-da — you have a win number! But wait … you’ll want to add a couple of percentage points to that average, just to be safe (I like to add 3-5%). That way, you have a buffer.
Average # ballots cast X (the average voter % + % safety margin) = WIN #
It will also depend on how many people are running against you. If there’s more than one candidate, getting 50+1% of the vote is not only unlikely, but it’s also unnecessary. Maybe you’ll only need 32% of the vote share, or maybe you’ll need 40% — it entirely depends on the number of candidates, so make sure that you keep that in mind when thinking about your calculation.
Voter ID Target
A Voter ID number is how many people you need to identify as voters to win.
This is not the same as your win number because not everyone you identify as a voter will go out and vote … so you want to give yourself a buffer.
This entirely depends on what the voter turnout is like in your community. If voter turnout in your municipality is high, you don’t need to add as much of a buffer to your win number to make up for the voter turnout (or lack thereof). But if voter turnout is unusually low in your community, you will have to keep that in mind when planning out your canvassing.
I like to add a 20% safety margin to a vote number to come up with the Voter ID target (but you can add whatever number you think is appropriate for your community).
So the calculation becomes:
Win # + 20% = Voter ID Target #
These aren’t perfect numbers. Depending on the kind of race that you’re running, you may need to identify more or less. That entirely depends on you and your team, but these are some excellent rough numbers to at least keep in mind and start building your campaign around.
If you’re looking for a resource to help you calculate this automatically, we included a Win Number Calculator and a Voter ID Target Calculator in our How To Run For Office workbooks. You can find it in the Understand Your Community workbook and the Exploring Your Run workbook bundle.
Everything you need to explore your run, make confident decisions, and prepare for a successful campaign — all in one digital workbook.
Running for municipal office is exciting, meaningful, and yes — a little intimidating. That’s why I created this workbook: to help you explore the possibility, ask the right questions, and get organized before making any big commitments.
The 2026 edition is fully updated, with clearer guidance, new resources, and a brand-new chapter on protecting your peace — because running for office is serious work, and you deserve to feel good doing it.
What’s Inside:
Updated Guidance: Refreshed examples, links, and resources relevant to 2026.
New Chapter: Protecting your peace, including a worksheet to help you set healthy boundaries.
Bonus Audio: A reworked workshop in audio format, perfect for listening on the go.
Clear Explanations: Simplified, step-by-step guidance to take the guesswork out of early campaign decisions.
Practical Worksheets: Define your mission, map your community, and build your campaign team.
Why This Workbook Works:
Helps you make a confident decision to run
Breaks down complex campaign steps into simple, actionable exercises
Created by Amanda Kingsley Malo — educator, campaign veteran, and your personal guide through local politics
Format:
30+-page PDF
Instant download
Works on computer, tablet, or phone
Are you exploring a run for office and want to understand the community you hope to serve?
This Workbook Module helps you map your community, identify key issues, and uncover where you can have the biggest impact. With exercises and reflections, it gives you the clarity and focus you need to take actionable steps toward a municipal council campaign.
In this module, you’ll explore:
Who makes up your community and what matters to them
The issues you can focus on as a candidate
How to prioritize your efforts and take meaningful action
Why grab just this module?
Sometimes you don’t need the full workbook — you just want to dive into understanding your community. This standalone chapter gives you everything from this chapter in one place, so you can reflect, strategize, and plan your next moves without flipping through the rest of the workbook.
This module is the second chapter of the HOW TO RUN FOR OFFICE: EXPLORING YOUR RUN workbook.
